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Prediction of near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active fault

Wang Haiyun (王海云)1,2, Xie Lili (谢礼立)1,3, Tao Xiaxin (陶夏新)1 and Li Jie (李捷)2

School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
School of Petroleum Engineering, Daqing Petroleum Institute, Daqing 163318, China
Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China

Abstract: A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First, macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, including fault length, fault width, rupture area, average slip on the fault plane, etc., are estimated by seismogeology survey, seismicity and seismic scaling laws. Second, slip distributions characterizing heterogeneity or roughness on the fault plane, i.e., local source parameters, are reproduced/evaluated by the hybrid slip model. Finally, the finite fault source model, developed from both the global and local source parameters, is combined with the stochastically synthetic technique of ground motion using the dynamic corner frequency based on seismology. The proposed method is applied to simulate the acceleration time histories on three base-rock stations during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Comparisons between the predicted and recorded acceleration time histories show that the method is feasible and practicable.

Keywords: active fault; scenario earthquake; near-field strong ground motion; global source parameters; local source parameters; asperity model; k square slip model.