Aims & Scope
Editorial Board
Contents & Abstracts
Submitting Your Paper
Copyright & Permissions
Contact Us
Subscriptions
search

Seismic reliability analysis of large electric power systems

He Jun (何 军)1 and Li Jie (李 杰)2

1. Department of Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, 800 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200240, China

2. Department of Building Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai 200092, China

Abstract:  Based on the De.Morgan laws and Boolean simplification, a recursive decomposition method is introduced in this paper to identify the main exclusive safe paths and failed paths of a network. The reliability or the reliability bound of a network can be conveniently expressed as the summation of the joint probabilities of these paths. Under the multivariate normal distribution assumption, a conditioned reliability index method is developed to evaluate joint probabilities of various exclusive safe paths and failed paths, and, finally, the seismic reliability or the reliability bound of an electric power system. Examples given in the paper show that the method is very simple and provides accurate results in the seismic reliability analysis.

Keywords: seismic reliability; electric power system; multivariate normal distribution; conditioned fractile index; correlation coefficient; joint probability