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Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

M. Erdik, N. Aydinoglu, Y. Fahjan, K. Sesetyan, M. Demircioglu, B. Siyahi, E. Durukal, C. Ozbey, Y. Biro, H. Akman and O. Yuzugullu

Boğazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios." The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

Keywords: earthquake risk assessment; metropolitan area; intensity; spectral displacement; earthquake damage; loss scenario